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SPARX: a modelling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting

机译:spaRX:太阳高能粒子辐射空间的建模系统   天气预报

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摘要

The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset,peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weatherimpact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagationof Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) from locations near the Sun to any givenlocation in the heliosphere to forecast the SEP flux profiles. SPARX uses aninnovative methodology, that allows implementation within an operationalframework, to overcome the time constraints of test particle modelling of SEPprofiles, allowing the production of near real time SEP nowcasts and forecasts,when paired with appropriate near real time triggers. SPARX has the capabilityto produce SEP forecasts within minutes of being triggered by observations of asolar eruptive event. The model is based on the test particle approach and isspatially 3D, thus allowing for the possibility of transport in the directionperpendicular to the magnetic field. The model naturally includes the effectsof perpendicular propagation due to drifts and drift-induced deceleration. Themodelling framework and the way in which parameters of relevance for SpaceWeather forecasting are obtained are described. The first results from themodelling system are presented. These results demonstrate that corotation anddrift of SEP streams play an important role in shaping SEP flux profiles.
机译:预测SEP事件的参数(例如其发作,峰值通量和持续时间)的能力对于评估任何潜在的太空天气影响至关重要。我们提出了一种新的灵活建模系统,可以模拟太阳高能粒子(SEP)从太阳附近的位置到太阳圈中任何给定位置的传播,以预测SEP通量剖面。 SPARX使用创新的方法,该方法允许在操作框架内实施,以克服SEPprofiles的测试粒子建模的时间限制,并与适当的近实时触发器配对时,可以产生近实时的SEP临近预报和预报。 SPARX能够在观测到太阳爆发事件后几分钟内生成SEP预测。该模型基于测试粒子方法,并且在空间上是3D的,因此可以在垂直于磁场的方向上进行传输。该模型自然包括由于漂移和漂移引起的减速引起的垂直传播的影响。描述了建模框架和获得与空间天气预报相关参数的方法。提出了建模系统的第一个结果。这些结果表明,SEP流的同向和漂移在塑造SEP通量剖面中起着重要作用。

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